Alum Morgan Kauffman (2010) was part of the Good Judgment Project team that won the IARPA Forecasting Tournament [formally the Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) Program]. The goal of the program is to see if competition can produced better forecasting [David Brooks wrote a good piece on this.] At the helm of the Good Judgment Team is Philip Tetlock, author of the landmark Expert Political Judgment and is prominent in forecasting circles. Tetlock and collaborators skimmed off the top 2% of forecasters from year 1 and randomly assigning them into five teams of 12 each. Not only is it an honor to make the cut, Morgan was also part of the winning team. Congratulations, Morgan! Andy Hines
